When “They’ll Never Get In” Suddenly Do: Shoalhaven’s New Political Risk

Every election, political groups in the Shoalhaven — like everywhere else in Australia — build their council tickets with a simple strategy in mind: maximise the vote for the top candidate.

The logic is straightforward.

If you put a mix of personalities on the ballot line, each with their own networks 9including the raving lunatic left anti-vax, 5G, civcit group), you can pull in more first-preference votes. Those extra votes then flow upwards to the #1 or #2 candidate, who is actually expected to win the seat.

For decades, this has been standard practice.

And for decades, it seemed safe.

Because everyone assumed the people down the ticket — the quiet ones, the unfamiliar ones, the “community reps” who never campaigned hard — would never actually become councillors.

But that assumption no longer holds.

Not under the NSW countback laws.

Not under Shoalhaven’s political instability.

And not under the rise of fringe political activism in local government across Australia.

What happens when the “they’ll never get in” candidates suddenly do?

Shoalhaven is about to find out even harder - just watch Cr Kemp struggle to understand the procedures in the chamber, vote out of confusion for things she had opposed and yell across the chamber as if she is at the Marlin. Well let’s see what the genius Steele brings to the chamber.

The New Reality: Countbacks Change Everything

In the old days, if a councillor resigned mid-term, the ward held a by-election. That meant voters got a new say.

Now?

Under the newer rules, we use a count back. No community vote. No fresh mandate. Just a mathematical re-distribution of ballot papers cast years earlier. Clearly with 47 and 72 votes, nobody really wanted Steele and Kemp in Council - but here we are.

And the person who rises to the top is not the most informed, the most trusted, or the most competent —

but simply the next candidate listed on the original ticket, no matter how little scrutiny they ever faced.

This is how someone who:

• never expected to win,

• was chosen mainly to bolster the ticket’s vote,

• had minimal policy exposure,

• and may have fringe political beliefs unknown to the public,

can suddenly become a Shoalhaven City Councillor.

This is not hypothetical.

It is happening right now.

Brett Steele - polled 47 first preference votes.

Denise Kemp - polled 72 first preference votes.

How political groups accidentally create problems for themselves

Groups sometimes recruit lower-ranked candidates because they have:

• a loyal micro-network (running an abusive facebook group against the Greens)

• a strong ideological following (conspiracy theory and Sovereign citizen views)

• a conspiratorial worldview that mobilises certain voters (just listen to Kemp on thinking that character meant that existing homes would turn into “little boxs like Shellharbour)

• or just a willingness to put their name on the ballot (Cr Kemp was dragged around by Patricia White as if she was a pet).

“Chid” show indeed.

The group doesn’t expect them to be elected.

They’re there to harvest votes for the top of the ticket.

But when the top councillors resign — and in the Shoalhaven the churn has been extraordinary — those down-ticket candidates become de facto councillors-in-waiting.

And here’s the twist:

They then form part of the voting majority within that group’s bloc on council.

The hardcore SIG now has a sub-section, the crazy conspiracy group - what will this mean? The floating 3 can bring down the SIG voting block at any time, there is a lot of tension between the Proudfoot/Wilkins group and the White, Casmiri, Clancy group - so wild times.

Which means the group’s future direction can be influenced — or outright controlled — by people whose worldview and capability the public never tested at election time.

For any political organisation, that is an internal governance nightmare.

For a city, it’s worse.

What happens when fringe or inexperienced councillors enter the chamber

Across Australia, councils that have seen this happen report the same problems:

1. Meeting dysfunction

Councils lose hours to:

• out-of-scope motions

• debates driven by misinformation

• attempts to revisit settled science (e.g., 5G, fluoride, climate)

• culture-war distractions

This slows everything, from development approvals to infrastructure planning.

2. Staff stress and governance strain

When councillors distrust the system:

• staff are flooded with “research” requests, (Kemp has been at this, often trying to uncover “conspiracies” she thinks appears to think staff know about)

• code-of-conduct complaints multiply, (look at this years figures)

• reports balloon in length to counter claims that were never evidence-based to begin with.

3. Loss of focus on core services

Local government is hard, unglamorous work. It requires:

• understanding budgets

• reading legislation

• long-term planning

• dealing with constraints and trade-offs

When councillors arrive with strong ideological worldviews but little policy capability, essential business — roads, waste, drainage, planning — loses priority. Look at the last two meetings where soverign citizens requested to speak on agenda items and then ran off into 5G, climate change denial, one world government etc etc.

4. Voter shock and accountability gap

Residents suddenly discover that someone they barely noticed on the ballot is:

• voting on million-dollar budgets

• representing them in confidential briefings

• making rulings on development, land use, public health

• influencing the direction of the largest employer in the region

But voters never had a chance to evaluate whether that person was ready.

Is this happening elsewhere? Absolutely.

Extremism researchers, state governments and council peak bodies have been warning since 2022 that:

• fringe political groups

• anti-government networks

• conspiratorial movements

• anti-vax / sovereign citizen collectives

are targeting local councils as an entry point into public office.

Why?

Because the barriers are low.

Media scrutiny is light, non existent, or right wing itself (make your own mind up about Graeme Day and the Chance show).

And the damage they can cause — from chaos to policy backsliding — is disproportionately high.

We have already seen:

• Victorian council meetings suspended due to organised conspiracy disruptions

• QLD councils pressured into reversing public health settings

• local governments inundated with disinformation campaigns on planning, 15-minute cities, libraries, and harmful culture-war issues

• targeted attempts to elect “one of our people” as the swing vote on small councils

So the Shoalhaven is not alone.

But we are more exposed than many because of:

• high councillor turnover

• entrenched political blocs - SIG clearly has never been a party of intellectuals but populist politics - remember the founder and his flag burning?

• a tradition of constructing long “vote-harvesting” tickets

• and deep public disengagement

It is a perfect environment for unexpected outcomes.

Shoalhaven’s Risk: The bloc becomes the hostage

When a political group loses control of its own internal membership — as can happen after resignations and countbacks — decision-making becomes unpredictable.

You can end up with:

• councillors who do not understand strategic planning

• councillors who cannot read a budget (Clancy often claims she does not understand a lot of the finance issues)

• councillors influenced heavily by online echo-chambers

• councillors uninterested in long-term infrastructure management

• councillors more focused on national culture wars than local roads

Yet they hold real votes that determine:

• development outcomes

• financial stability

• CEO oversight

• land sales

• debt levels

• community assets

• climate resilience planning

• waste contracts

• library funding

• and nearly everything else that shapes daily life in the Shoalhaven.

When this happens, a bloc becomes a vehicle without a driver — or worse, with a driver the voters never knowingly chose.

What should Shoalhaven residents take from this?

1. Don’t ignore the names down the ticket

If a group asks you to vote “B above the line”, you are endorsing every single candidate — not just the face on the brochure.

2. Understand how countbacks work

A resignation does not trigger a fresh election.

You get whoever was next in line — even if you’ve never heard of them.

3. Demand higher standards from political groups

If a group recruits someone for their votes rather than their competence, it is the public that pays the price when the unexpected happens.

4. Expect — and insist on — transparency

If a new councillor arrives through the side door of a countback, they should publicly state:

• their priorities

• their policy positions

• their experience

• their vision for the ward

• and how they will make evidence-based decisions

Shoalhaven deserves nothing less.

We cannot afford accidental councillors

1. Our roads are crumbling.

2. Our finances are under pressure.

3. Our planning challenges are growing.

And we are heading into an era of climate, infrastructure and housing stress that requires the most capable council possible.

Shoalhaven cannot be governed by accident.

Not anymore.

The public needs — and deserves — councillors who are ready on day one.

Not people who were placed on a ticket simply to harvest votes, only to end up holding power no one expected them to wield.

Because the stakes for this region are far too high to leave to chance.

---

• Please share this with 2 friends who care about Shoalhaven.

If you get value from this post and you want to help me with information applications to get to the bottom of issues, you can donate here.

Thank you for considering this, the posts will always be free - but I could do with some help :)

Here are the current applications to council, seeking documents. At the moment I have one matter before NCAT. I will fight for transparency.

Disclaimer: This article provides analysis and commentary based on publicly available information and council transcripts. It does not make allegations of misconduct by any individual. Readers should verify details independently before drawing conclusions.

Here is a quick disclaimer, or explainer on the use of AI in the Eye.

I encourage you to take up your democratic right and engage with councillors, here are the contact details - send them questions or comments, text is best as they tend to ignore emails.